Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
