A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
